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02/10/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Orlando Magic try to stay hot tonight when they welcome the Atlanta Hawks to the Amway Center.
This, of course, is the first meeting between these Southeast Division rivals since Atlanta knocked the Magic out of last year's playoffs in six games.
Orlando, though, enters tonight's tilt playing some of its best basketball of the season, having won four of its last five games. On Wednesday, Ryan Anderson scored 27 points, Dwight Howard added 25 and both players had double- doubles to lead the Magic to a 102-89 win over the Miami Heat.
The Magic made 17 three-pointers and led wire-to-wire, going ahead by as many as 17 and fending off a couple of Miami runs. Their strong play of late comes on the heels of a four-game slide.
"I thought we did a good job gathering ourselves. We held our composure and nobody seemed the least bit worried, we just kept making plays," said Magic coach Stan Van Gundy.
Anderson, who made five threes and scored 24 points in a big first half, added 11 rebounds and Howard pulled down a game-high 24. Orlando improved to 12-1 this season when scoring at least 100 points.
The Magic are in the midst of a stretch that sees them play six of seven at home, where they are 9-5 on the year.
Atlanta, meanwhile, snapped a three-game skid on Wednesday, as Josh Smith had 28 points and 12 rebounds to lead the Hawks to a 97-87 win over the Indiana Pacers.
Atlanta got 20 points and eight assists from Joe Johnson, 17 points from Kirk Hinrich and 13 from Tracy McGrady to close its four-game homestand with a victory.
"We weren't playing well," said McGrady, who scored seven of his points in the fourth quarter. "I think we recognized that. Tonight we wanted to provide that energy and that effort and I think we did that."
Atlanta is 12-1 this season when Johnson scores at least 20 points. Johnson was named as a reserve for the Eastern Conference All-Star team on Thursday.
"Im Blessed to have the opportunity to play in my 6th AllStar game," Johnson wrote on his Twitter page. "It never gets old."
After tonight's contest the Hawks will return home to host the Heat, then hit the road again for five straight games. Atlanta is 8-5 away from home this season.
Atlanta knocked off the Magic in six games in the first round of last year's playoffs and has won three straight and four of the last five regular season meetings between the two teams.
<< Pacers battle Grizzlies on Beale Street
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The much-improved Indiana Pacers hope to salvage the back-
end of a brief two-game road trip tonight when they square off with the
Memphis Grizzlies on Beale Street.
Indiana is coming off a 97-98 loss in Atlant
<< Red Wings shoot for 19th straight home win vs. Ducks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Forgive the Red Wings if they are looking past the Ducks
and towards this weekend when they could have a chance at matching the longest
home winning streak in NHL history.
After all, wins over Anaheim at Joe Louis Arena ar
<< Nets and Pistons finish home-and-home set
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-year center Greg Monroe is starting to heat up for a
Detroit Pistons team riding a season-high three-game winning streak and is
aiming for his fourth straight double-double tonight versus the New Jersey
Nets in the bac
<< Cavs and Bucks clash at the 'Q'
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Kyrie Irving probably won't play
again tonight after suffering a concussion earlier this week, but Ramon
Sessions will be there to pick up the slack.
Sessions filled in nicely for Irving the prev
Blazers, Hornets tangle in the Big Easy >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland hopes a Western Conference-worst New Orleans team
proves to be a bit of a tonic after the Blazers dropped consecutive games in
Rip City.
A controversial goaltending call on All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge al
Avs aim to close homestand with win over 'Canes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche recently put their longest skid of
the season behind them and will try to close out a four-game homestand with
another victory when they face the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at Pepsi
Center.
The Ava
New York signs midfielder Palsson >>
Harrison, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York signed Icelandic midfielder
Victor Palsson on Friday.
Palsson, 20, spent the last year at Scottish Premier League side Hibernian and
appeared in 34 games in all competitions. The defensive
Blackhawks hope to halt fall in San Jose >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The free-falling Chicago Blackhawks will try to end their
longest losing streak in over four years when they continue a lengthy road
trip with tonight's battle against the San Jose Sharks at HP Pavilion.
The Blackhawks are
Kansas City, MO - Kansas City has not officially named Matt Cassel its starting quarterback, but there can be no doubt now.
NFL Betting
After praising his leadership and work ethic through spring workouts, the Chiefs announced Tuesday they had signed the 27-year-old Cassel to a multiyear contract. Terms were not disclosed, but he will almost certainly be one of the highest-paid members of the team.
"We are excited to be able to reach a long-term agreement for Matt Cassel to be a Kansas City Chief for many years to come," owner and board chairman Clark Hunt said in a statement. "His proven leadership on and off the field will be a tremendous asset to the organization."
Patriots made him their franchise player, meaning his salary for this season will be about $15 million.
New head coach Todd Haley, taking over for Herm Edwards after a 2-14 season, refused to name a starter at any position during offseason workouts. But it was obvious to everyone the team belonged to Cassel.
"I go out there each and every day with that focus that I'm the starter," Cassel said during a June minicamp. "Competition brings out the best in everybody."
The signing will come as welcome news to Cassel's new coaches and teammates. Amiable and hardworking, online football betting he appeared to win over everyone at minicamp.
"I think he's got some unique leadership qualities. I think his teammates like him and have respect for him. I think he's doing a pretty good job on the field, too," Haley said last month. "He's doing everything that I'm asking him, that our coaches are asking him to do. I don't have one single complaint how he's carrying himself."
After one workout, wide receiver Devard Darling declared Cassel "a breath of fresh air."
"He has a lot of swagger, a lot of confidence. It's good for us," said Darling. "We trust in him that he's going to go out there and lead us all the way."
nse to accommodate his specific abilities.
Trapped on the bench behind Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC and then unable to unseat Super Bowl MVP Brady at New England, Cassel seemed destined to be a backup all his life. As Brady was helped off the field last September, Cassel seized the opportunity he'd been waiting for since high school.
In his only sustained action since his teens, he hit 349 of 555 passes for 3,949 yards at New England. He had 23 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions as the Patriots, who had gone unbeaten through the regular season the year before, finished 11-5 and out of the playoffs.
Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli, who had been Bill Belichick's assistant in New England, engineered the trade after the Patriots became convinced that Brady would recover fully from his knee operation.
"Since Matt arrived in Kansas City, he has embraced the team and the community," Pioli said. "His work ethic, his ability and competitive presence is what we expect from our players."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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