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02/03/2012 - Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlo Ancelotti is perfect in four matches in charge of PSG and the rebuilt French club hosts Evian on Saturday in search of their sixth in their last seven games overall.
With more than $100 million spent on transfers last summer, and reinforcements added this winter in Brazilians Alex, Maxwell and Thiago Motta, Ancelotti will have enough firepower to remain atop Ligue 1.
Ancelotti, who spent his three previous managerial stints at Chelsea, AC Milan and Juventus, remains cautious because "our main rivals are Montpellier, but I am wary of Marseille, who have so much quality and experience."
PSG leads second-place Montpellier by three points, while Marseille sits nine points off the pace in fifth place.
But even with his new side off to a great start, Ancelotti realizes a lot can happen in the last 17 matches of the season.
"Everything is going well. I have a squad of young and motivated players who treat me with respect, without doubt because I have won lots of titles," said Ancelotti.
"But I still want to improve my relationship with the players. I like to speak with the players, enjoy myself with them sometimes. In football, there is a time to concentrate on work and a time when you need to relax."
Evian sits mid-table, but just four points above the drop zone as it looks for its first road win of the season at the Parc des Princes.
Montpellier is also at home Saturday against Brest, while surging Ajaccio will try to make it five straight wins when it hosts Nice.
In Saturday's other matches, Dijon hosts Valenciennes, Nancy hosts Rennes, St Etienne hosts Lorient, and Bordeaux hosts Toulouse. Due to severe weather, the times for many of the matches have been adjusted, and some could be postponed.
Marseille has six wins during a seven-game undefeated run ahead of its Olympic clash with Lyon on Sunday. Lyon sits one point ahead of Marseille in fourth.
Although PSG has established itself atop the table, Lyon coach Remi Garde will not concede the title.
"There are several teams that can win the title but I don't think any one side really stands out," he said. "I don't hide my desire to one day win the French title.
"We want to go all the way and I hope we will be competing for the title right down to the wire."
Caen hosts Auxerre, and Sochaux hosts defending champion and third-place Lille in Sunday's other matches, which are also in danger of being postponed due to the extreme cold blanketing Europe.
<< Report: Rays win arbitration case against Niemann
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Rays have won their arbitration case
with towering right-hander Jeff Niemann, the Tampa Bay Times reported Friday.
The 6-foot-9 Niemann, who turns 29 later this month, will earn $2.75 million
this
<< Dortmund downs Nurnberg to take Bundesliga lead
Nurnberg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sebastian Kehl and Lucas Barrio scored in
the second half as Borussia Dortmund downed Nurnberg, 2-0, on Friday to return
to top of the Bundesliga.
Defending champion Dortmund broke a three-way tie on poin
<< Snow threatening weekend schedule in Italy
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heavy snow in Italy is threatening to wreak
havoc with the 22nd round of Serie A fixtures this weekend as one match has
already been postponed and others have been moved.
Four midweek matches were post
<< Youzhny reaches Zagreb final four
Zagreb, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Third-seeded Russian Mikhail Youzhny
was a hard-fought quarterfinal winner Friday at the Zagreb Indoors tennis
tournament.
Youzhny needed 2 hours, 42 minutes to stave off eighth-seeded massive-serving
Magic suspend Glen Davis 2 games >>
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Orlando Magic suspended forward Glen Davis
two games for conduct detrimental to the team, general manager Otis Smith
announced Friday.
Davis, who was acquired during the offseason via a trade with
D.C. United waives forward Brettschneider >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United waived 22-year-old forward
Blake Brettschneider on Friday after just one season with the club.
Brettschneider was picked 21st overall in the 2011 Supplemental Draft by D.C.,
and played in 1
Ronaldo poised to lift Real Madrid against Getafe >>
Getafe, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - La Liga leading-scorer Cristiano Ronaldo and
his Real Madrid team face Getafe at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez on Saturday,
and if history is any indication, the Portuguese superstar could be in line
for an
Oden has yet another knee surgery >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland Trail Blazers center Greg Oden
underwent successful knee surgery on Friday.
The athroscopic procedure was performed in Vail, Colorado and cleaned out
debris inside his right knee.
Oden
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.
MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.
Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.
Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.
After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.
Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.
Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.
If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.
Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting